Bad Election Predictions

Okay, so I described the methodology I used to build a disaggregate microsimulation model of the election using multinomial logit discrete choice techniques. If that sounds intriguing, here’s the post with the details. If that sounds confusing, I made a virtual Canada with 1.8 million people (1 for every 20 real ones); they have different […]

Predicting 2021 BADLY – Methodology

Maybe I’m crazy, but I spent my free time this past week building a bad election prediction model. It’s a bad model for three reasons. The first is that I decided to build it in a week’s worth of spare time, so it’s missing a number of important features — most notably, any measure of […]

Alberta Vaccination – June 08/21

So… how’s that vaccination going in Alberta? It depends on where you are and how old you are. The urban under-60 population are beginning to approach the rural 60+ population in first doses.

Scooting somewhere?

Previously, I looked at the general behaviour of e-scooter users based on the 2019 Calgary pilot data; where do they travel (mostly in the downtown, Beltline and adjacent communities) and when do they travel (mostly evenings and weekends). I talked a little about origins and destinations, but there’s tons of more data to look into […]

Scooting along

Calgary is finishing the second year of a pilot of e-scooter share systems; one of the nice things is that some e-scooter data is available for public use on the City’s website. I hope to do a couple of posts; the first is a high level look at the data, and then I want to […]

Accessing Calgary’s downtown

One of the concerns with the Green Line currently being debated in Calgary city council is that Centre Street is a busy street that can’t afford to lose lanes for LRT. Here’s the daily number of users on the major entrance routes into the downtown; the Centre Street upper deck isn’t busier than other routes; […]

Airport Transit Use

I’ve been thinking about a number of things lately; one of them is transit to the airport. It’s a broadly popular concept, and the City of Calgary is studying some options. I was wondering what kind of ridership we would see in Calgary if we connected LRT to the airport, and what that would look […]

Bank Stock Photo Regionalization

Okay, so this started with someone’s tweet: To summarize the thread, it turns out that Chase uses a different background photo depending on where you are; the photo above is what New York City area customers see, but this varies by place in the US. There are actually two different photos used in each location, […]

How weather affects cycling

I presented this at the 2019 World Winter Cycling Congress here in Calgary; it’s a data-driven look at what weather factors have an impact on cycling volumes. Winter has enough of an effect on cycling that it makes sense to have a winter cycling event — I don’t think there’s a Spring Cycling Congress, for […]

How weather affects cycling – methodology

As part of the World Winter Cycling Congress in Calgary, I’m presenting a paper entitled “Wondering What’s Winter Weather”, which is a data-driven look at what weather factors impact cycling. This is the data dump / methodology version of the post; I’ll produce another in a few days that is words and brightly-coloured charts, so […]